Take for instance, buying a car. I appreciate your time. If I  was thinking of buying in Florida now for a very compelling reason, I would rent until real estate prices dropped, then consider buying (I would also have a better idea if Florida was what I expected after renting a while). With that been said, I was still hoping to get some of your insight on this possible move which I call “upgrade”. I wouldn’t put $100,000 down on a $400,000 home, then borrow $300,000, if I felt that 2 years later the home likely would only be worth $300,000 because at that point my $100,000 cash down turned to $0. That’s how it happened last time as well. Or is it? I am thinking on moving to a larger home now and rent my townhouse to help pay for the mortgage. Read further and I’ll explain how you can move to Florida and avoid this devastating trap. Thanks for the report. _____ You Wrote: As long as this historic current economic expansion continues, a slow down or sagging of Florida home prices is probably the best relief prospective home buyers may get. A forecast by Haus shows home prices dropping between 0.5 and 2.5 percent from October 2020 to July 2021. We purchased a house for $185k that, like many of the houses at the time was literally going up about $4k per week. But not now. However, the problem is that everyone who moves to Florida truly believes they will stay forever. In a strong seller’s market a nice home may sell within weeks, days or even hours. The impact of the economic disruption in real estate varies, and is going to continue to vary, from one state or metro area to another. Everything you need to know before moving to Florida, Last Updated on August 1, 2020 by Ron Stack, Home - Before Buying or Renting - How to Know Where Home Prices Are Heading. If you strongly want to do something based on emotion and can afford it, are aware of the possible downsides and are willing to risk that, then just do it. The COVID-19 pandemic has not slowed South Florida's housing market — including rentals — and agents are giving their tips for the best ways for buyers and sellers to take advantage of the market. Hello Mike, On an emotional level, you want a bigger place to live and you can afford it now (because of investments made that paid off). A seller’s market is when there are more buyers looking for homes and condos in an area than there are properties for sale. Hi Ron If I move in and out homes frequently, they are more investment than home. Both were ARM loans but neither were subprime. If Florida experiences a return to “normal” hurricane seasons, this could shell shock people who came to believe the hurricane drought was “normal”. Am I missing something? Real estate prices depend on the law of supply and demand. Home sales rose for yet another month during October to a rate of 6.85 million units – + 4.3% from September and up an astonishing 26.6% from last October 2019. See pricing and listing details of Fort Myers real estate for sale. 4) Gas prices were heading up fast, talk of $100 a barrel oil, but now it’s dropped to around $50 from over $70. “Unlike the Great Recession, the current economic downturn is not driven by the housing market,” CoreLogic said in its report. Hello Tom, Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window), Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window), © 2006-2020 HW Media, LLC. Hello Paul, Real estate markets could collapse in coastal regions vulnerable to the effects of rising sea levels. Florida real estate prices dropped an average of 60% during the last recession. This can lead to a large financial loss. Our credit at the time of buying was in the high 700s/low 800s and we had zero debt. This stimulus or something similar may be repeated soon, and depending on who the president is at the end of January 2021, the recently new $10,000 limit on deductions on federal tax returns may be repealed, taking us back to where we were before and therefore provide people less incentive to leave high tax states and head to places like Florida. The US can’t print new money forever. Why? Buying a house for 300k and selling mine for 200k will make sense since my total investment will be 200k now and in case price drops my money is still safe. In September, Florida’s housing market reported more closed sales, more new pending sales, rising median prices and more new listings compared to a year ago despite the ongoing pandemic, according to the latest housing data from Florida Realtors.. My house continues to increase in value and there are zero houses for sell in our community. That didn’t happen much during the hurricane drought. A page of listings will appear. With the Fed chairman caving on raising interest rates (he calls it being “patient”), the stock market doing so well (at the moment), the economy at least appearing to be robust, and with at least some people relocating from high SALT states to FL, NV, and TX (just read your new page on that subject today), has your prediction timeline for the bubble burst changed? An exclusive interview with the Forbes reporters who recently wrote a bombshell article about Better.com CEO Vishal Garg’s controversial workplace culture. Only you can decide what is best for you and the right course of action to take. Ron Stack “That Best Places Guy”. We are the leading US online real estate auction site selling properties in Florida and have sold thousands of residential homes and properties across the nation via our easy-to-use online bidding platform. The market is a 2 tiered one of inner city vs suburbs … This current economic expansion is the now the longest in US history, so yes, I’ve had to adjust my timelines in the article. Ron Stack, Thanks for clearly few good points! (now they are selling for 190-200k) When this current bubble pops, prices will likely drop the most in neighborhoods where homes are occupied mainly by people who bought to live in Florida full-time. About 30,000+-  people move into, and out of Florida every month. It’s called a seller’s market because the seller has the buyer at a disadvantage. The Mortgage Bankers Association announced the new members of its 2021 Residential Board of Governors and the Chairs of the Residential Committee. Despite home prices increasing 4.8% year over year in May, a … When there are more buyers than available homes, prices go up. Yes, prices may sag where you live now too, but they won’t tank nearly as far as they will in Florida unless you live in another transient state such as Nevada, Arizona or California. What one agrees to sell for and another agrees to pay without influence or interference on or by either party. Then they get mad at their agent their formally $300,000 home they have a $240,000 mortgage on, is only worth $150,000. Living in Florida When a Hurricane is Heading Your Way. It will probably take the next recession to bring about the 50% off sales event. My wife and I were first time home buyers in 2005 when we had saved 35k as 25 year olds, 4 years married, working our tails off. I am now moving back into the same area for work and don’t know what to do. You don’t need any outside blessing of any uninvolved party because only you will benefit from the emotional high and you’ll own the financial consequences, positive or otherwise. In bubble territory, right before it pops. Then the slide started, and continued for YEARS. 2) I would never buy any asset (like real estate) if I expected the price to drop shortly after the I purchased. Fast forward 4 more years and those same properties have shot back up into the $400,000+ range again. _____ No 50 percent clip. I would have never in a million years not paid my debts but we didn’t have a choice and knowing the banks were behind the demise, it became much easier to ask them to participate in the suffering. Do you agree? This could be due to the short term impact of the ongoing pandemic which has impeded the real estate sales activity in the entire nation. This means there will usually be a lot of homes to chose from in your price range. Existing homes are also considerably easier on the wallet than newly constructed abodes, which cost a median $319,700 in September, according … Prices eventually followed, falling 7.6 percent from 2016 to 2020, according to data from Zillow, the real estate data company. If someone is in a good financial position because they bought low when no one else was buying, why would they now do the opposite of what they know works? Hello Paul, I Think will be best for me to hold off on purchase house high and wait for the “pop”. Home prices in Florida and Arizona expected to drop due to COVID-19 “perfect storm”. Back to the city of self-righteousness for you. 1) Is it a home or an investment? 148: One Week Ago: 2. That is absolutely insane. Studies show a very high percentage of people who relocate to Florida will eventually decide their relocation was a mistake and want to move out of the state. Hello Robert, Hello J b, It’s far easier to get a nice homes at a huge discount without having to wait for the “bottom”, when prices are heading south in Florida. But a sharp decline seems unlikely based on current conditions. Seller’s markets are not fun for buyers. Parkland – $504,836 4. Prices usually drop less in areas where homes and condos are mostly owned by wealthier folks who mainly only occupy them during the winter months such as in Palm Beach (Note: Look for growing inventory, homes sitting on the market longer and price reductions. If moving to Florida turns out to be a mistake (over 12 million+ have already moved out) because it wasn’t what you expected, how bad could you feel if you got to leave Florida with $150,000 more cash in your pocket than you moved to Florida with? 5) Hurricanes & flooding obviously are terrible for housing long term because less people will move to Florida to replace the 1000 a day that leave. _____ Maybe 25 percent.”, So you think it’s going to happen differently because…why??? Thanks for your reply. Real estate agent Kevin Dickenson’s clients had a deal to sell their $3 million Boca Raton house in March. However, when recession does finally hit Florida home prices that have been inflating for a record 10+ years, may experience a historic drop. Ron Stack “That Best Places Guy”. The exact figures, however, are less important than the explanation behind the expected drop. An expert in this space can find homes to flip at a profit even in a difficult market as prices are heading skyward with low inventory. So when the peak is met and prices start to fall, it isn’t like you can rush out and get a good deal. They never stopped giving mortgages to people who qualified income and credit-wise who were buying a home that actually appraised for its true value. So when the peak is met and prices start to fall, it isn’t like you can rush out and get a good deal. The 5 Safest Places to Live in Florida 2020. However, if you move to Florida and buy a home when prices are low during a strong seller’s market, then later want to sell and move out when prices are climbing steeply during a strong seller’s market, you could stand to earn a large profit. What I may do may or may not be of any help. or Should I just wait for the next “pop”? (Unless it drops more then 33%). I read your articles and see that the best option for us is We should be renting in FL for now and waiting for another year or two to see how the real estate market will be before we can make a good decision on buying. Has the 2018 hurricane season had any impact on housing prices? Ron, I don’t think it is going to happen like that. I would have to turn in my investor badge. Another person, I’ll call him John, that mistook owning a home for owning a self-filling ATM machine and then tries to portray himself as a victim. The Fed has lowered interest rates to the lowest point ever and kept them there for longer than ever before. At least 300,000 coastal properties will flood 26 times a year by 2045. Why? These 13 housing crash factors will shape the housing market. Despite home prices increasing 4.8% year over year in May, a report by CoreLogic predicts home prices will stall over the summer and estimates a 6.6% decline by May of 2021. What, they told you it can’t happen again? Sending money to directly to every adult and paying $600 a week extra to the unemployed prevented that, is completely new and together with trillions to banks and corporations, it has allowed the bubble to inflate further. Scroll down past the listings until you see. Is it the best investment? I will not be able to buy unless i have cash. You must have an active HW+ membership to comment.Already a member? Maybe the best “investment” according to Consumer Reports would be a boring sedan that is great on gas mileage, safer in crashes, holds it value better, is reasonably priced, etc. Maybe 25 percent. Zillow has 172,081 homes for sale in Florida. A year later I was told that it was worth $650k. I’m writing this on 11/15/2020. What would you do if you were investor and home buyer at the same time? As of today we have a disputed election, possible covid worsening which could bring more lockdowns and more stimulus money to banks, businesses and more checks sent to individuals. From what I am reading I should walk away and wait for the prices to drop because when the home is finished in early 2019 more than likely the price of homes will drop sharply in 2019 during the next inevitable recession. The average value of a Central Florida home only dropped by $300 from April to May, but there are other signs of weakening, too. I’m thinking of buying in Orlando now but it is completely a sellers market. The short term effect of hurricanes on housing prices in Florida is different than what happen in the long run. Only buy low, only sell high if you’re going to sell. Even if they don’t drop the price, more sellers are willing to entertain low offers because they have no idea how long it may be until the next offer comes along, if at all. Do you want to bet half of the value of that … You will have to wait. Good luck Tom. Before the application stage, lenders need an effective strategy that ties all the home buying stages together and the right tools to support the process. +- for housing short term, – in the long run, I will be adding some links in the above article to news stories about Florida price reductions. If inventory is low and prices are high, that’s a good indication that you’re in a seller’s market. Then they either just walk away from the home (it then goes into foreclosure further depressing prices) or they stay and pay and are miserable…for 10 years until prices reach the top again. A balanced real estate market is where both the supply and demand for homes and condos in a particular area is roughly equal. _____ The Covid 19 shutdowns have impacted the rental housing market, yet prices have risen and look to rise further in the face of ongoing rental housing shortages, and a housing market that may cool. The latest Tampa real estate market forecast is that the home prices may remain flat or decrease by 1.2% – in the next twelve months. I found that for me personally, it’s always better to thoroughly research (due diligence) a subject before making decisions, than after. $140 on the first, $26 on the second after closing costs. Meanwhile, in San Diego — where the market conditions are considered normal — home prices are forecasted to decline just 1.3% over the next 12 months, the report said. People are working. Buyer’s markets can be lots of fun for buyers but not much for sellers and real estate brokers. I have started building a house in Florida in September of this year. "While the Florida residential real estate market remains robust today, climate risk poses a potential threat to asset prices," the 29-page report says.. Now is the best time as any to invest in real estate. Corelogic’s forecast predicts home prices nationally will have fallen 6.6 percent year-over-year by May 2021. Looking back now we should have all seen the signs but literally NOBODY knew the catastrophe that was just around the corner. A return to normal hurricane seasons where Florida can expect to get hit every year could cause all those people who would have left annually, but didn’t because of the drought, to leave all at once. Because the supply of homes exceeds the demand for them in a Florida buyer’s market, buyers can take their time when shopping for a home because homes will sit on the market for many months, possibly a year or longer without selling. Ron Stack “That Best Places Guy”. View listing photos, review sales history, and use our detailed real estate filters to find the perfect place. Ron Stack “That Best Places Guy”. + for housing We are looking to buy a new built or resale home in Viera (Brevard County). arrow is pointing down, this is another indication that prices will likely rise in the future. But you can’t get $300,000 (or finance that) when the value is now only $150,000 because all of the other formally $300,000 homes are now on the market for $150,000. At this stage, we do not expect to see a major decline in home prices nationwide. Fort Lauderdale – $481,066 The CoreLogic Home Price Index Forecast predicts a month-over-month price decrease of 0.1% in June, with all states expected to experience decline. The quote above reflects our own outlook for the U.S. real estate market through the second half of 2020. *fully remodeled was selling for 225k on Nov. 2016. Wanted to get your thoughts about where the Florida real estate market is heading these days. Thanks for the comment. The Florida Move Guide says that a certain number of people would normally leave Florida every year citing the effects of hurricane season as one of the many reasons. Like you’ve said, I bought in cash the 1st one (where i live) in 2010 for 100k that were selling in for 250k in 2006 and again i purchase another one in the same community in 2014 for 150k cash as rental income. All rights reserved. Use our state-of-the-art property search, including an interactive map search, to find homes for sale in the Florida Keys. Thank you, Thanks for great blog, I am 30+ years old and I own 2 town houses without mortgage in South Florida (Plantation, FL). If I was thinking of moving to Florida but didn’t have to move right now, I would wait until after the current Florida real estate bubble pops and homes prices drop and lots of homes come on the market to choose from. Home prices rose 8.6% to a median $240,000 in Charlotte, while condos added 3.5 to $186,250. Buyers may not want to be too eager to make an offer because sellers will often reduce their prices. Too often they want to sell in the years after the bubble pops, before things start to rise again. Taking you at face value that you sold a home for (I’m guessing) approximately 216 K and netted 100K after expenses and commissions when the market was hot, the next thing you did was get greedy, thinking this was easily repeatable and that all you had to do spend MORE money and buy a bigger home and you’d begin making obscene amounts of profits on home sales. A downward skid that actually lasted about 5 years. Happy March 2019! You wrote: “Ron, I don’t think it is going to happen like that. When (not if) this expansion ends and another recession happens it will be like 2008 all over again in transient states like Florida for housing prices. If the country experiences a downturn or recession (historically we are far overdue for one, this current economic expansion has made history as the. Besides, no one knows know when the bottom has been hit, until after prices have already started to rise again. I lived the experience in 2008 when I bought my home and lost 35% of my home. 3) I would never borrow money to buy an asset when I thought there was a good chance that the value of the asset would drop below what I owed on it. This number is nearly 5 percent higher than the rest of the country. In early March, median list prices were up 4.4% annually on average. I think you’ll see that that median prices are heading down and inventory is increasing. _____ Those new listings may also be priced lower than existing for-sale homes in the area thereby pressuring those older sellers to reduce their price in order to compete. I still don’t see this setting up anytime soon for a bust. login. 1) “My house continues to increase in value and there are zero houses for sell in our community.” CBS News: “Eighty-two percent of chief financial officers polled believe a recession will have started by the end 2020”, Bloomberg: “Two-Thirds of U.S. Business Economists See Recession by End-2020”, The Guardian: “Nouriel Roubini, who can claim to be one of the few economists to forecast the last crash, also nominates 2020”, Caveat: As I update this article, the US has experienced the longest period ever in history without a recession. If the days on market starts to increase while inventory continues to grow, prices will go down at a faster pace. But you also wrote This is because the number of homes for sale is decreasing and vise versa. Get Miami FL and national real estate headlines on housing and development industry news. Palmetto Bay – $525,019 3. Good luck Tom. Yes, the person who bought a $340,000 home purchased just before the last downturn, ended up with an “investment” that was worth only roughly $136,000 afterwords. You asked for my thoughts, I gave them to you. 1. The bank made us bring $3k to the table in order to agree to forgive the remaining debt. Or is your comment based on your experience of having bought one home (that you haven’t yet tried to sell) in Florida that you still live in, and what you see happening as a homeowner in your neighborhood? Ron Stack “That Best Places Guy”. “States like Arizona and Florida faced the perfect storm of elevated COVID-19 cases and the subsequent collapse of the spring and summer tourism market, which curtailed home-purchase demand enough to keep a lid on home price gains over the coming year,” CoreLogic said. Ron Stack. _____ Welcome to Florida-Keys.realestate, your one-stop source for Florida Keys real estate. Is that make sense ? During strong seller’s markets, many buyers may end up paying far more than they want for a home they really don’t like very much, simply because they believe it will be even worse if they don’t act now. Strong Seller’s markets are fun for sellers, real estate agents that can still successfully compete for listings as inventory gets scarce, flippers (investors that buy homes, do no or minimal improvements, then jack up price and put it right back on the market) and new construction builders. This thorough report on the US rental housing market for 2020 and 2021 offers stats, insights, and trends happening as we head toward 2021. Rent is sky high, sale prices have shot up and I feel like it’s 2005 all over again. I’ve been renting for for 1 year and a half and will keep renting for now. The Ten Most Expensive Real Estate Markets in Florida. Do Hurricanes Affect Florida Home Prices? The new median existing-home price was $313,000, almost 16% more than in October 2019 yet down from $316,200 in September. Learn More. You know what the best move most like would be if you were looking at this strictly as an investment. What I see is a huge build out in commercial. During a buyer’s market in Florida there will be more than a six month supply of homes for sale. CoreLogics HPI Forecast for the month of April also cited an expected decline in home prices for 2021 – the first time we’ve seen home prices fall in more than nine years. The anticipated impacts of the recession are beginning to appear across the housing market as the CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator, a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicted 125 metro areas have at least a 75% probability of decline by May 2021. I mean, the sky’s the limit right? 3) We are overdue for a recession but this current economic expansion has become like the energizer bunny due to recent government policies that have extended it past it’s expiration date. “Many buyers and sellers have understandably pressed the pause button,” said 2020 Florida Realtors President Barry Grooms, a Realtor and co-owner of Florida Suncoast Real Estate Inc. in Bradenton. _____ Absolutely not. Banks, mortgage companies and other lenders did not stop giving mortgages, the just stopped doing the ones that should have never happened in the first place. The nation’s median home price will likely slow down in the months ahead, and might level off. In two years we paid off the HELOC in full and also $5k toward the principle of the $140. I understand the idea of buying low and sell high and not to buy something base on emotions or low rates but I don’t think I can sell and rent until price drops again. Despite home prices increasing 4.8% year over year in May, a report by CoreLogic predicts home prices will stall over the summer and estimates a 6.6% decline by May of 2021. That's the slowest growth in seven years. That’s the car you really want because it’s fast and it’s looks turns heads. Absolutely. They financed us with a first and second mortgage, the second being a HELOC. The picture of what will happen to Florida home prices may become much clearer in spring 2021. Since you decided to pompously chime in, I thought I’d set you straight. ?” This is. When agents put listings in their local MLS, they get auto-populated to Realtor dot com. However, right now there are so many “moving parts” that affect whether prices will rise or fall, it’s harder than ever to predict but overall things are heading south. The median sales price as of last month was $305,000. We are selling our home in NY and hope my wife and the kids can move down with me by the end of this June. Have been looking at houses in Orlando in the mid 200s so my payment after 20% down before taxes and insurance would be somewhere between 800 and 900 a month. No 50 percent clip. 2) But the FED did not raise rates as expected at it’s last pow-wow as it said it would. The Numbers: Median Sales Price: The median sales price of all homes in Lee County FL has steadily increased since April of this year. Oh and remember, the bottom was not until 2012. First, I’m not John. Prices are high. Right before the Florida real estate market took a beating and prices dropped by over 50% on average, and there were no buyers anywhere in Florida, for years. + for housing In the first half of April they were up just under 1%. Emotion. 1) I would never buy real estate during a strong seller’s market. This is a sign that builders are no longer running from Florida, and actually see value in this market. Statewide, buyers closed on 20,693 single-family homes last month, 9.1% ahead of 2019. So maybe in a few more years. Ron Stack “That Best Places Guy”. Best mistake you ever made, right? Undervalued markets accounted for 24% including the San Francisco area of California, and 37% were at value like the Chicago area of Illinois. This could cause a severe drop in real estate prices, similar to what happened after the record Florida hurricanes years of 2004 & 2005, as homes for sale flood the market over the next few years. The house sold to an investor for $95k…yes, that’s $95k, not $195k. And the Chairs of the house 140 on the law of supply and demand for homes condos! Ron Stack “ that Best Places Guy ” prices nationally will have to end sometime sent - check email! Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni says there ’ s how it happened last time as any invest! Paid off the HELOC in full and also $ 5k toward the principle of the country and will to. Rose 22 percent compared to people moving out can cause wild swings in,... 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